It is not a direct attack. That’s the entire problem. And if you define friendly countries as part of the war then you have defacto declared war on them. The only impact that’s going to have is in Yemen. Europe and North America aren’t going to just give up the suez canal. The Yemeni coast facing the straight is going to turn into an international occupied zone. It will cost a billion dollars a year and they’ll pay it happily to keep a trillion dollars a year flowing through the canal.
Then a year later, the only people who will even remember it’s an occupied zone are the same people who know there’s a UN mission in Sinai to keep the Suez Canal from being shut down by war again. That’s it. It’s not going to crash any economies. It’s not going to hurt Israel or anyone else for more than a month or two.
When you’ve got bombs dropping on your head, it doesn’t matter whether the US is doing it via their own Navy or six layers of proxies. The explosion still hurts the same, regardless.
if you define friendly countries as part of the war then you have defacto declared war on them
Absolutely. Which is why Israel declaring total war on Gaza was such a monumental misstep. You’ve got Palestinians in Jordan, Persians in Iran, Arabs in Iraq and Egypt and Lebanon and Syria, and now Houthis in Yemen all fighting mad.
The Red Sea is shut down entirely because the war in Gaza was recognized is increasingly seen as a war by Israel against all Muslims.
Europe and North America aren’t going to just give up the suez canal. The Yemeni coast facing the straight is going to turn into an international occupied zone.
Given how much trouble US and British troops have had moving in and around Somalia, how disastrously the war in Afghanistan and Iraq ended, and how inhospitable to modern western military hardware the Yemeni mountains have proven to be, I think the question is not whether EU/NA will give up the Suez but whether they can hang on to it.
the only people who will even remember it’s an occupied zone are the same people who know there’s a UN mission in Sinai to keep the Suez Canal from being shut down by war again
You’re only furthering my point. Americans and Europeans have completely neglected how fragile the region is, simply because of this period of relative stability. Given that the UN is fracturing in the face of Old West nations feuding with BRICS states, their ability to maintain control over the peninsula is eroding in turn.
And, again, it should be noted how crazy profitable this turn of events has been for South Africa. 90% of shipping traffic formerly passing through the Suez is now passing around the Horn. That’s brought a much-needed injection of cash and cargo into the region.
Similarly, the nascent BRI is seeing a flood of new commerce, as overland travel gains appeal relative to the hazardous Red Sea route.
From the standpoint of the BRICS states, this has been a windfall. They aren’t under any economic pressure to tag in with EU/NA on Yemen. If anything, it appears that the South Africans are leading a diplomatic charge in their defense.
The Houthis are not directly stacking Israel. Don’t twist my words. They were in response to your comment.
Given how much trouble US and British troops have had moving in and around Somalia, how disastrously the war in Afghanistan and Iraq ended, and how inhospitable to modern western military hardware the Yemeni mountains have proven to be, I think the question is not whether EU/NA will give up the Suez but whether they can hang on to it.
What you’re missing is it won’t be a peacekeeping mission or a nation building mission. They’re going to DMZ it. Anyone in area X not in a uniform, with a weapon, gets killed.
But you’re just using more and more propaganda lines so I’m going to stop here.
They are directly impacting the Israeli economy and security, by threatening a traffic lane vital for Israel’s continued existence.
What you’re missing is it won’t be a peacekeeping mission or a nation building mission. They’re going to DMZ it.
Getting your military advise from Douglas MacArthur? The man who threw up on the White House lawn when he found out he was heading up the war on the peninsula and suffered one of the most humiliating American military defeats since Lee surrendered at Appomattox?
Anyone in area X not in a uniform, with a weapon, gets killed.
Christ, its like you haven’t been paying attention to the last 50 years of US military history. Aerial bombardments have never successfully secured territory. All they’ve done is waste $10M ordinance on $100 targets.
The Saudis have been bombing Yemen for a full decade. They’re better at building tunnel networks than the fucking Gazans.
But you’re just using more and more propaganda lines
You are shitting out your doo-doo ass and refusing to acknowledge the smell.
Nobody said shit about it staying at aerial bombardments. Why do you think I’m so pissed? I know people who are going to end up there.
And it’s still not impacting Israel’s economy. So the ships had to go around, supply is already re-established. Nobody going through the straight is going to Israel anymore because insurance won’t let them. So now the Houthis decided it’s the entire Western world which is just stupid. Like pissing in the wind. They’re getting people killed for nothing.
And no. MacArthur is neither here nor there. He didn’t come up with the concept of a DMZ or militarized zone. I fully expect it to look like Eastern Turkey with a lot of stupid shit going on because some local dickhead though he could gain an ounce more street cred by attacking the West.
But the way, they have now explicitly attacked American cargo ships for being American. If you look at American history you know we don’t back down. We only ever escalate once our civilians are being shot at. And we certainly aren’t going to give up on global trade just because a random warlord decided he could control international water.
The Israeli economy has been damaged, too — and it is Israel more than Hamas that will decide when the shooting stops. Some economists compare the shock to the Israeli economy to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. Others say it might be worse.
Gross domestic product will fall — from forecasts of 3 percent growth in 2023 to 1 percent in 2024, according to the Bank of Israel. Some economists predict contraction.
…
Tourism has flatlined. The Tel Aviv beaches and the Old City in Jerusalem are bereft of foreigners. Christmas celebrations in Bethlehem in the occupied West Bank were canceled.
Construction, which ordinarily relies on Palestinian labor from the West Bank, has ground to a near-halt. Since Israel launched its assault to eradicate Hamas, it has suspended the work permits of more than 100,000 Palestinians.
Exports are down across the board. Israel’s gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea were shut down early in the war but are now partially operating.
It is not a direct attack. That’s the entire problem. And if you define friendly countries as part of the war then you have defacto declared war on them. The only impact that’s going to have is in Yemen. Europe and North America aren’t going to just give up the suez canal. The Yemeni coast facing the straight is going to turn into an international occupied zone. It will cost a billion dollars a year and they’ll pay it happily to keep a trillion dollars a year flowing through the canal.
Then a year later, the only people who will even remember it’s an occupied zone are the same people who know there’s a UN mission in Sinai to keep the Suez Canal from being shut down by war again. That’s it. It’s not going to crash any economies. It’s not going to hurt Israel or anyone else for more than a month or two.
When you’ve got bombs dropping on your head, it doesn’t matter whether the US is doing it via their own Navy or six layers of proxies. The explosion still hurts the same, regardless.
Absolutely. Which is why Israel declaring total war on Gaza was such a monumental misstep. You’ve got Palestinians in Jordan, Persians in Iran, Arabs in Iraq and Egypt and Lebanon and Syria, and now Houthis in Yemen all fighting mad.
The Red Sea is shut down entirely because the war in Gaza was recognized is increasingly seen as a war by Israel against all Muslims.
Given how much trouble US and British troops have had moving in and around Somalia, how disastrously the war in Afghanistan and Iraq ended, and how inhospitable to modern western military hardware the Yemeni mountains have proven to be, I think the question is not whether EU/NA will give up the Suez but whether they can hang on to it.
You’re only furthering my point. Americans and Europeans have completely neglected how fragile the region is, simply because of this period of relative stability. Given that the UN is fracturing in the face of Old West nations feuding with BRICS states, their ability to maintain control over the peninsula is eroding in turn.
And, again, it should be noted how crazy profitable this turn of events has been for South Africa. 90% of shipping traffic formerly passing through the Suez is now passing around the Horn. That’s brought a much-needed injection of cash and cargo into the region.
Similarly, the nascent BRI is seeing a flood of new commerce, as overland travel gains appeal relative to the hazardous Red Sea route.
From the standpoint of the BRICS states, this has been a windfall. They aren’t under any economic pressure to tag in with EU/NA on Yemen. If anything, it appears that the South Africans are leading a diplomatic charge in their defense.
The Houthis are not directly stacking Israel. Don’t twist my words. They were in response to your comment.
What you’re missing is it won’t be a peacekeeping mission or a nation building mission. They’re going to DMZ it. Anyone in area X not in a uniform, with a weapon, gets killed.
But you’re just using more and more propaganda lines so I’m going to stop here.
They are directly impacting the Israeli economy and security, by threatening a traffic lane vital for Israel’s continued existence.
Getting your military advise from Douglas MacArthur? The man who threw up on the White House lawn when he found out he was heading up the war on the peninsula and suffered one of the most humiliating American military defeats since Lee surrendered at Appomattox?
Christ, its like you haven’t been paying attention to the last 50 years of US military history. Aerial bombardments have never successfully secured territory. All they’ve done is waste $10M ordinance on $100 targets.
The Saudis have been bombing Yemen for a full decade. They’re better at building tunnel networks than the fucking Gazans.
You are shitting out your doo-doo ass and refusing to acknowledge the smell.
Nobody said shit about it staying at aerial bombardments. Why do you think I’m so pissed? I know people who are going to end up there.
And it’s still not impacting Israel’s economy. So the ships had to go around, supply is already re-established. Nobody going through the straight is going to Israel anymore because insurance won’t let them. So now the Houthis decided it’s the entire Western world which is just stupid. Like pissing in the wind. They’re getting people killed for nothing.
And no. MacArthur is neither here nor there. He didn’t come up with the concept of a DMZ or militarized zone. I fully expect it to look like Eastern Turkey with a lot of stupid shit going on because some local dickhead though he could gain an ounce more street cred by attacking the West.
But the way, they have now explicitly attacked American cargo ships for being American. If you look at American history you know we don’t back down. We only ever escalate once our civilians are being shot at. And we certainly aren’t going to give up on global trade just because a random warlord decided he could control international water.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/31/gaza-war-costs-israel-economy/
…
Tourism flat lining isn’t because of cargo ships. It’s because they’re fighting a war.
Come on dude. Stop trying to conflate things.
The war is why they’re losing the cargo ships.