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Cake day: July 8th, 2023

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  • A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would look nothing like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. China could attack Taiwan with fires from the mainland, there isn’t a deep depth of terrain within which to hide. It would be more about resisting an occupying force than trying to meet them on the battlefield.

    The deterrence here isn’t in stopping an invasion, but from making the fallout so costly that it wouldn’t be worth it. Just rigging the TSMC plants with explosives and blowing them up when an invasion starts would accomplish deterrence more effectively than having soldiers shoot at each other. The unified economic sanctions of Russia after the invasion of Ukraine has been extremely costly and acts as a major message of deterrence against China trying to take Taiwan and risking reduction to the foreign trade that’s so vital to their stability (which is why they’re to develop their domestic market to reduce economic dependence).

    Taiwan should stay independent, but it doesn’t make sense to have a lot of people bleed for it.


  • The concern is a good bit higher than “possible” since they’ve just recently inflicted a large scale natural disaster to slow the Ukrainian offensive to retake their territory.

    The Kakhovka dam was blown up by Russians because Ukraine doesn’t own the kinds of weapons that could destroy it from a distance even if they for some reason wanted to devastate their own land (they don’t).

    Russia clearing out the plant staff and inspectors is highly suspect. If there was a major radiation leak, that too would have to come from manually placed demolitions…which is what they’ve been seeing.