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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 20th, 2023

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  • Are you honestly saying I can steal the better part of a billion dollars and hop across the border to Mexico without worry?

    In other longer articles you find out that it’s nowhere nearly a billion. The Solar Farms used to underpin the investments do exist and are productive. They have value in the hundreds of millions of pounds, but its apparently not quite enough to satisfy all of the bonds when they come do in 2025 and 2026.







  • Average price of gasoline in the US in July of 2019 was about 2.80 per gallon. In July of 2023 it was about 3.60 per gallon. This is about a 27% difference.

    Based on official us inflation rates (CPI) in 2020, 2021, 2023, but only through march of 2023 the price would be 3.40 per gallon. That isn’t that far off, especially when my calculation is missing inflation data for 4 full months.

    tl;dr This is what inflation does to a mf’er. $3.70 to 3.80 is almost certainly the new normal, it won’t be going down unless the US economy experiences deflation.




  • If a crash of that magnitude happens

    It doesn’t require a full scale Great Depression style meltdown, the ‘downturn’ of 2008 caused significant difficult for many, it simply requires a sharp enough retraction of Investment Capital. That retraction is already in progress as the retirement rate for Boomers escalates and more of them begin selling their stocks and bonds; either directly or through their retirement instruments like 401ks and Pensions.

    I’m not a doomer but I am fairly convinced that 401ks are a timebomb.


  • The 2008 TARP that bailed out GM and Chrysler may have had widespread support but it wasn’t universal. In my opinion it shouldn’t have been done either and was probably only necessary because of the original Chrysler bailout back in the day. Without that “The Big Three” would have been subject to market forces and turned into “The Big Two”, the healthier market may have kept GM from being in the position to need a bailout.

    The other point of note is that GM did repay their loan so at least in that instance it worked out. I have no idea why anyone in the Federal Government thought that Yellow would be able to successfully repay this one.


  • Gotta be a special kind of incompetent to crumble in a booming economic period.

    Yellow has been horribly mismanaged for at least two decades. They should have died long ago and in any environment but one that’s literally awash with money looking for investment opportunities they would have. For structural reasons IC is drying up so we’re going to see a lot more badly run and unprofitable companies going belly up. This is a trend that’s already started and its just going to pick up speed from here.



  • The US fucked this up during WWII when it froze wages to prevent businesses from swiping the limited number of available employees from each other. So instead of wages employers started offering benefits instead, two of the commonly offered benefits were Pensions and Medical Insurance.

    As a nation we really should fix these problems but doing so would be hella expensive and perhaps even impossible as we’re hitting the same demographic off-ramp that France and so many other Western Nations are already on.